![]() ![]() “As you get closer to the election, the accuracy of the polls goes up and the error goes down, and right now we’re in the band where the error is equivalent to flipping a coin.”Ĭontinue reading at Northeastern Global News. “Presidential polls are usually considered to be unpredictive this far in advance,” Beauchamp says. A year out from the 2024 presidential election, Beauchamp is again looking at odds more than polling. This is a tentative timeline of major events leading up to, during, and after the 2024 United States presidential election.This will be the first presidential election to be run with population data from the 2020 census.In addition to the dates mandated by the relevant federal laws such as those in the U.S. ![]() Trump was then leading the Republican primary, so he had a 50/50 chance of winning that … and then he would be in a two-way race, so again had a 50/50 chance to win the presidency. “People I know who were not fans of Trump would be aghast and say “‘That’s ridiculous, how can you possibly say that?’” Beauchamp recalls, noting that Trump was then considered somewhat a “joke candidate” among the eight Republican and two Democratic candidates.īut Beauchamp’s prediction - while prescient - was primarily based not on polling but odds. In 2015, Northeastern University associate professor of political science Nick Beauchamp predicted that Donald Trump had a 25% chance of winning the next year’s presidential election.
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